Democrat Civil War ERUPTS Over Texas

Two donkeys playfully spar, one donkey rests nearby.

U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett’s polarizing Texas Senate bid has ignited a Democratic civil war, with even her own party calling her “electoral kryptonite” while Republicans celebrate her candidacy as a gift that could sink vulnerable Democrats across the Lone Star State.

Story Snapshot

Crockett trails primary rival James Talarico by 9 points in latest Emerson poll despite holding 75% name recognition statewide
Republican operatives label her a “toxic brand” whose controversial remarks on Latino voters and right-wing violence energize GOP turnout
Her Senate run threatens South Texas Democrats as the NRCC ties her past statements to vulnerable House incumbents in redrawn districts
Talarico raised over $13 million and dominates among Hispanic voters, white voters, and men by double-digit margins heading into March primary

Democratic Party Splits Over Crockett’s Electability

Texas Democrats face a critical choice as the March 3, 2026 primary approaches, with U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett’s Senate candidacy dividing the party between base mobilization and swing voter persuasion strategies. Crockett filed on December 8, 2025, the final day before the deadline, entering a primary against state Rep. James Talarico and others. Despite Crockett’s 75% name recognition and strong support among Black voters, polling data reveals significant vulnerabilities. The latest Emerson College/Nexstar poll from January 16, 2026 shows Talarico leading 47% to 38%, a dramatic reversal from September 2025 when University of Houston polling had Crockett ahead at 31%.

Controversial Statements Create Republican Attack Opportunities

Crockett’s past remarks have become ammunition for Republican operatives seeking to exploit divisions within the Democratic coalition. Her 2024 Vanity Fair comments characterizing some Latino voters as having a “slave mentality” and describing right-wing Americans as inherently “violent” generated substantial backlash beyond conservative circles. The National Republican Congressional Committee conducted polling in summer 2025 showing Crockett’s unfavorable ratings in battleground districts, prompting the organization to label her candidacy a strategic advantage. Senator John Cornyn, the likely Republican general election opponent, publicly called her Senate bid a “gift” to his party. These statements underscore how Crockett’s sharp rhetorical style, which built her national profile since entering Congress in 2022, now threatens to undermine Democratic efforts in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since Lloyd Bentsen’s 1988 reelection.

Talarico’s Broad Coalition Contrasts With Base-Only Strategy

James Talarico has assembled a formidable campaign operation that appeals across demographic lines, raising over $13 million and building support among voters who remain skeptical of Crockett’s approach. Polling data reveals Talarico’s strength with Hispanic voters and white voters, capturing approximately 60% support from each group, along with a 22-point advantage among men. The former teacher and seminarian presents a less polarizing profile that party strategists believe can compete effectively in November 2026. Pollster Nancy Zdunkewicz warned that while Crockett energizes infrequent voters and commands 80% support among Black Texans, she simultaneously motivates Republican turnout without demoralizing GOP voters or persuading independents—a fatal combination in a state where Democrats haven’t won statewide office in over three decades.

South Texas Democrats Face Collateral Damage

The NRCC’s strategy of tying Crockett to vulnerable House Democrats in newly redrawn South Texas districts threatens the party’s already slim hopes of defending competitive seats. Representatives Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez face heightened vulnerability as Republican campaigns link them to Crockett’s most controversial statements, particularly her comments about Latino voters that resonate negatively in Hispanic-majority districts. This dynamic illustrates how a statewide Senate campaign can cascade down ballot, affecting races far removed from Crockett’s Dallas congressional district. Texas Democrats confront a scenario where their Senate nominee could simultaneously fail to win statewide while costing the party House seats, compounding losses in a midterm year that historically favors the opposition party. The first primary debate scheduled for late January 2026 offers Crockett an opportunity to address these concerns, though her insistence that internal polling contradicts public surveys suggests a campaign doubling down on base turnout rather than pivoting toward broader appeal.